Let's use this page to explore tools for probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA). These tools include event and logic trees to calculate the probability of a sequence of events, prediction diagrams that use graph theory to consider the probability of transitioning from one type of activity to another, and numerical models of volcanic hazards, such as tephra fallout and lava flows.
Learn about event and logic trees as they are used in PVHA. You can work through the interactive webpages. Download the associated javascript and create your own trees!
Learn about Bayes' theorem and the use of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) to forecast eruptions.
We created Tephra2 to simulate tephra dispersion from an explosive volcano. You can run Tephra2 to simulate eruptions from specific volcanoes [e.g., Colima (Mexico), Lassen (CA)]
MOLASSES is a lava flow simulator that we have developed to quickly model potential area inundated by lava flows. You can run MOLASSES for specific volcanoes and digital elevation models.
The Energy Cone model is a Pyroclastic Density Current (PDC) Simulation Tool used to simulate the potential run-out of pyroclastic density currents.